September 11, 2025 | Vol. 107
A loud headline said “Linear TV will drop 11% next year.” The math says otherwise. WARC’s latest read shows $143.9B in 2025 falling to $139.1B in 2026 (about –3.3% in dollars). The 11.3% figure is share of total ad spend next year, down from 12.4% this year—not a double-digit dollar crash. Linear is shrinking in mix, not disappearing.
It's challenging to discuss this headline seriously, given the substantial amount of money involved. Framing linear TV ad spending as a cause for alarm is absurd, especially when the significant dollar figures are intentionally omitted from the headline.
Let’s be honest: that headline was built to make you click—and, more importantly, to make you feel like linear TV is dead. It isn’t. The attention trick is this: “11.3%” isn’t a dollar drop; it’s linear TV’s projected share of total ad spend next year. The dollars go from roughly $143.9B (2025) to $139.1B (2026)—about a 3.3% dip. That’s change, not a funeral. A market still north of $100B deserves strategy, not panic.
What’s really happening
Reach is consolidating in live sports, news, and big cultural moments on linear; incremental reach has moved to streaming. World Screen
CTV is the growth engine, especially in the U.S., and it works best when paired with linear for balanced reach + controlled frequency. World Screen
The $139.1B 2026 linear market would be the lowest since 2005—but it’s still massive. Strategy > headlines. WARC
What winning plans look like now
Anchor in moments: Prioritize high-attention linear (live sports/news/primetime).
Mirror the audience shift: Add CTV/streaming to extend reach and cap frequency.
Control overlap: Use audience deduplication and frequency guardrails across linear + CTV.
Budget smarter: Expect a few points of mix to keep shifting into CTV while you protect the linear moments that move needles.
🤪STRAIGHT TALK FROM THE CRAZY
Read the math, not the headline. Use linear for high-impact reach (sports, news, big moments). Use CTV for precision and frequency control. The winners plan cross-screen and measure outcomes—not noise.
Be careful to believe what the headlines and bold print say by themselves - just dig a little deeper.
Until next time - Expect to Win!
JIM
P.S. Want a fast, honest read on where your audience attention is today—and how to buy it efficiently? Hit reply or Click on my digital business card below and reach out in whatever way is most convenient for you.
